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Mecha Skirmish / Balance study analysisPrototype field notes / v0.6

Balance study analysis

Phase: reachability-exploratory. Rows are paired on all eight study keys. Draws score one half. Comeback after first loss is descriptive, not causal.

Comparison manifest: /Users/cody/Dev/mecha-skirmish/docs/tuning/evidence/2026-09-09-multivariant/reachability-comparison.json (adaptive-exploratory, SHA-256 55abe6928ac6c9089796b2f5ea481e8deab7584a16562be2c463afac4a79aa10). Aliases below retain their original control identities and phases.

Candidate summary

Candidate Actual control identity Panel Spread Mean abs dev Empty Fire Dead before attack Physical side First side First-loss win Rounds Wipes
baseline baseline (wide) full-15-pair 20.0% 6.4% 13.7% 8.3% 0.7% 3.2% 30.9% 6.00 69.8%
goalpath goalpath (wide) full-15-pair 37.7% 10.1% 13.7% 10.3% 0.7% 4.6% 28.0% 6.14 64.6%
zonegoals zonegoals (reachability) full-15-pair 31.5% 7.9% 13.7% 9.6% 0.7% 4.3% 29.6% 6.10 65.5%
safeapproach safeapproach (reachability) full-15-pair 51.8% 11.2% 13.6% 6.7% 0.5% 3.0% 36.3% 5.72 82.1%

Paired changes from baseline

Positive guardrail changes are harmful. Worst-map columns are the largest same-map increase in absolute bias. Mean absolute bias remains descriptive.

Candidate Spread Empty Fire Dead before attack Worst added physical Worst added first Mean physical Mean first
goalpath 17.7% [13.6%, 22.5%] -0.0% [-0.2%, 0.2%] 1.9% [1.7%, 2.1%] 1.5% [0.0%, 3.5%] 4.1% [1.7%, 6.6%] 0.0% 1.4%
zonegoals 11.6% [7.1%, 16.2%] -0.1% [-0.3%, 0.1%] 1.3% [1.1%, 1.5%] 0.7% [0.0%, 2.8%] 4.5% [1.5%, 6.1%] 0.0% 1.1%
safeapproach 31.8% [28.5%, 34.6%] -0.1% [-0.4%, 0.1%] -1.6% [-1.9%, -1.3%] 0.1% [0.0%, 1.7%] 2.6% [0.7%, 4.5%] -0.2% -0.2%

Intervals: 95.0% paired seed-block bootstrap, 1,000 replicates. Exploratory only; final inference requires the predeclared 99% intervals.

Exploratory family-payoff intervals

These 95% bootstrap intervals are descriptive and separate from the five primary claims. Point and interval warnings are reported separately against the 35%–65% review band.

Candidate Family Point 95% interval Point outside band Interval entirely outside band
baseline mixed 46.1% [44.3%, 47.9%] no no
baseline armored 47.4% [45.0%, 49.9%] no no
baseline mobile 60.3% [57.9%, 62.7%] no no
baseline melee 47.0% [45.0%, 48.8%] no no
baseline gunline 40.3% [37.1%, 43.8%] no no
baseline control 58.9% [56.4%, 61.2%] no no
goalpath mixed 44.4% [42.2%, 46.7%] no no
goalpath armored 52.2% [50.2%, 54.2%] no no
goalpath mobile 63.7% [61.1%, 65.9%] no no
goalpath melee 26.7% [25.2%, 28.1%] yes yes
goalpath gunline 48.6% [45.9%, 51.5%] no no
goalpath control 64.4% [62.0%, 66.6%] no no
zonegoals mixed 49.1% [46.6%, 51.5%] no no
zonegoals armored 50.1% [48.3%, 51.8%] no no
zonegoals mobile 61.1% [58.8%, 63.2%] no no
zonegoals melee 31.0% [29.4%, 32.7%] yes yes
zonegoals gunline 46.1% [43.7%, 48.9%] no no
zonegoals control 62.5% [59.9%, 64.8%] no no
safeapproach mixed 47.7% [45.8%, 49.7%] no no
safeapproach armored 38.4% [36.9%, 40.0%] no no
safeapproach mobile 49.4% [47.2%, 51.3%] no no
safeapproach melee 83.7% [81.6%, 85.6%] yes yes
safeapproach gunline 32.0% [29.1%, 35.1%] yes no
safeapproach control 48.8% [46.1%, 51.2%] no no

Operational and command metrics

Candidate First attack Moves Move hexes Melees Locks CP grant CP spend CP waste Policy declines Budget denials CP left Nominal mitigation
baseline 1.94 112.59 112.59 3.97 7.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
goalpath 1.96 110.97 110.97 3.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
zonegoals 1.95 111.35 111.35 3.68 7.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
safeapproach 1.97 112.89 112.89 4.49 7.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

baseline: family payoff (full opponent panel)

Family Expected score Opponents
mixed 46.1% 5
armored 47.4% 5
mobile 60.3% 5
melee 47.0% 5
gunline 40.3% 5
control 58.9% 5

baseline: map and pairing points

Map X Y Games X score Draws
causeway armored control 128 62.5% 0.0%
causeway armored gunline 128 50.0% 0.0%
causeway armored melee 128 81.2% 0.0%
causeway armored mobile 128 43.0% 0.0%
causeway gunline control 128 26.6% 0.0%
causeway melee control 128 35.9% 0.0%
causeway melee gunline 128 82.0% 0.0%
causeway mixed armored 128 63.3% 0.0%
causeway mixed control 128 51.6% 0.0%
causeway mixed gunline 128 71.1% 0.0%
causeway mixed melee 128 17.2% 0.0%
causeway mixed mobile 128 35.2% 0.0%
causeway mobile control 128 71.1% 0.0%
causeway mobile gunline 128 60.9% 0.0%
causeway mobile melee 128 64.8% 0.0%
flat armored control 128 31.2% 0.0%
flat armored gunline 128 53.1% 0.0%
flat armored melee 128 1.6% 0.0%
flat armored mobile 128 33.6% 0.0%
flat gunline control 128 17.2% 0.0%
flat melee control 128 21.9% 0.0%
flat melee gunline 128 37.5% 0.0%
flat mixed armored 128 64.1% 0.0%
flat mixed control 128 68.0% 0.0%
flat mixed gunline 128 73.4% 0.0%
flat mixed melee 128 3.1% 0.0%
flat mixed mobile 128 57.0% 0.0%
flat mobile control 128 34.4% 0.0%
flat mobile gunline 128 85.9% 0.0%
flat mobile melee 128 6.2% 0.0%
foundry armored control 128 37.5% 0.0%
foundry armored gunline 128 59.4% 0.0%
foundry armored melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry armored mobile 128 37.5% 0.0%
foundry gunline control 128 30.5% 0.0%
foundry melee control 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry melee gunline 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed armored 128 33.6% 0.0%
foundry mixed control 128 10.2% 0.0%
foundry mixed gunline 128 21.9% 0.0%
foundry mixed melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed mobile 128 20.3% 0.0%
foundry mobile control 128 64.1% 0.0%
foundry mobile gunline 128 85.2% 0.0%
foundry mobile melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
quarry armored control 128 43.0% 0.0%
quarry armored gunline 128 39.8% 0.0%
quarry armored melee 128 58.6% 0.0%
quarry armored mobile 128 35.2% 0.0%
quarry gunline control 128 53.1% 0.0%
quarry melee control 128 90.6% 0.0%
quarry melee gunline 128 81.2% 0.0%
quarry mixed armored 128 57.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed control 128 39.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed gunline 128 57.0% 0.0%
quarry mixed melee 128 33.6% 0.0%
quarry mixed mobile 128 43.8% 0.0%
quarry mobile control 128 33.6% 0.0%
quarry mobile gunline 128 62.5% 0.0%
quarry mobile melee 128 42.2% 0.0%

goalpath: family payoff (full opponent panel)

Family Expected score Opponents
mixed 44.4% 5
armored 52.2% 5
mobile 63.7% 5
melee 26.7% 5
gunline 48.6% 5
control 64.4% 5

goalpath: map and pairing points

Map X Y Games X score Draws
causeway armored control 128 69.5% 0.0%
causeway armored gunline 128 57.8% 0.0%
causeway armored melee 128 87.5% 0.0%
causeway armored mobile 128 42.2% 0.0%
causeway gunline control 128 25.8% 0.0%
causeway melee control 128 46.9% 0.0%
causeway melee gunline 128 32.8% 0.0%
causeway mixed armored 128 45.3% 0.0%
causeway mixed control 128 29.7% 0.0%
causeway mixed gunline 128 30.5% 0.0%
causeway mixed melee 128 90.6% 0.0%
causeway mixed mobile 128 32.0% 0.0%
causeway mobile control 128 70.3% 0.0%
causeway mobile gunline 128 60.2% 0.0%
causeway mobile melee 128 72.7% 0.0%
flat armored control 128 31.2% 0.0%
flat armored gunline 128 53.1% 0.0%
flat armored melee 128 1.6% 0.0%
flat armored mobile 128 33.6% 0.0%
flat gunline control 128 17.2% 0.0%
flat melee control 128 21.9% 0.0%
flat melee gunline 128 37.5% 0.0%
flat mixed armored 128 64.1% 0.0%
flat mixed control 128 68.0% 0.0%
flat mixed gunline 128 73.4% 0.0%
flat mixed melee 128 3.1% 0.0%
flat mixed mobile 128 57.0% 0.0%
flat mobile control 128 34.4% 0.0%
flat mobile gunline 128 85.9% 0.0%
flat mobile melee 128 6.2% 0.0%
foundry armored control 128 37.5% 0.0%
foundry armored gunline 128 59.4% 0.0%
foundry armored melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry armored mobile 128 32.8% 0.0%
foundry gunline control 128 29.7% 0.0%
foundry melee control 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry melee gunline 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed armored 128 34.4% 0.0%
foundry mixed control 128 10.9% 0.0%
foundry mixed gunline 128 24.2% 0.0%
foundry mixed melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed mobile 128 15.6% 0.0%
foundry mobile control 128 64.8% 0.0%
foundry mobile gunline 128 84.4% 0.0%
foundry mobile melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
quarry armored control 128 40.6% 0.0%
quarry armored gunline 128 39.1% 0.0%
quarry armored melee 128 99.2% 0.0%
quarry armored mobile 128 35.9% 0.0%
quarry gunline control 128 46.1% 0.0%
quarry melee control 128 25.0% 0.0%
quarry melee gunline 128 7.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed armored 128 32.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed control 128 11.7% 0.0%
quarry mixed gunline 128 38.3% 0.0%
quarry mixed melee 128 93.0% 0.0%
quarry mixed mobile 128 33.6% 0.0%
quarry mobile control 128 31.2% 0.0%
quarry mobile gunline 128 62.5% 0.0%
quarry mobile melee 128 83.6% 0.0%

zonegoals: family payoff (full opponent panel)

Family Expected score Opponents
mixed 49.1% 5
armored 50.1% 5
mobile 61.1% 5
melee 31.0% 5
gunline 46.1% 5
control 62.5% 5

zonegoals: map and pairing points

Map X Y Games X score Draws
causeway armored control 128 69.5% 0.0%
causeway armored gunline 128 55.5% 0.0%
causeway armored melee 128 86.7% 0.0%
causeway armored mobile 128 41.4% 0.0%
causeway gunline control 128 26.6% 0.0%
causeway melee control 128 46.9% 0.0%
causeway melee gunline 128 32.8% 0.0%
causeway mixed armored 128 53.1% 0.0%
causeway mixed control 128 57.0% 0.0%
causeway mixed gunline 128 48.4% 0.0%
causeway mixed melee 128 90.6% 0.0%
causeway mixed mobile 128 40.6% 0.0%
causeway mobile control 128 70.3% 0.0%
causeway mobile gunline 128 60.2% 0.0%
causeway mobile melee 128 70.3% 0.0%
flat armored control 128 31.2% 0.0%
flat armored gunline 128 53.1% 0.0%
flat armored melee 128 1.6% 0.0%
flat armored mobile 128 33.6% 0.0%
flat gunline control 128 17.2% 0.0%
flat melee control 128 21.9% 0.0%
flat melee gunline 128 37.5% 0.0%
flat mixed armored 128 64.1% 0.0%
flat mixed control 128 68.0% 0.0%
flat mixed gunline 128 73.4% 0.0%
flat mixed melee 128 3.1% 0.0%
flat mixed mobile 128 57.0% 0.0%
flat mobile control 128 34.4% 0.0%
flat mobile gunline 128 85.9% 0.0%
flat mobile melee 128 6.2% 0.0%
foundry armored control 128 37.5% 0.0%
foundry armored gunline 128 59.4% 0.0%
foundry armored melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry armored mobile 128 32.8% 0.0%
foundry gunline control 128 29.7% 0.0%
foundry melee control 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry melee gunline 128 0.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed armored 128 34.4% 0.0%
foundry mixed control 128 10.9% 0.0%
foundry mixed gunline 128 24.2% 0.0%
foundry mixed melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed mobile 128 15.6% 0.0%
foundry mobile control 128 64.8% 0.0%
foundry mobile gunline 128 84.4% 0.0%
foundry mobile melee 128 100.0% 0.0%
quarry armored control 128 39.8% 0.0%
quarry armored gunline 128 42.2% 0.0%
quarry armored melee 128 84.4% 0.0%
quarry armored mobile 128 35.9% 0.0%
quarry gunline control 128 46.1% 0.0%
quarry melee control 128 24.2% 0.0%
quarry melee gunline 128 26.6% 0.0%
quarry mixed armored 128 50.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed control 128 10.2% 0.0%
quarry mixed gunline 128 58.6% 0.0%
quarry mixed melee 128 74.2% 0.0%
quarry mixed mobile 128 48.4% 0.0%
quarry mobile control 128 43.0% 0.0%
quarry mobile gunline 128 54.7% 0.0%
quarry mobile melee 128 52.3% 0.0%

safeapproach: family payoff (full opponent panel)

Family Expected score Opponents
mixed 47.7% 5
armored 38.4% 5
mobile 49.4% 5
melee 83.7% 5
gunline 32.0% 5
control 48.8% 5

safeapproach: map and pairing points

Map X Y Games X score Draws
causeway armored control 128 69.5% 0.0%
causeway armored gunline 128 55.5% 0.0%
causeway armored melee 128 11.7% 0.0%
causeway armored mobile 128 41.4% 0.0%
causeway gunline control 128 26.6% 0.0%
causeway melee control 128 93.8% 0.0%
causeway melee gunline 128 98.4% 0.0%
causeway mixed armored 128 53.9% 0.0%
causeway mixed control 128 50.8% 0.0%
causeway mixed gunline 128 71.1% 0.0%
causeway mixed melee 128 4.7% 0.0%
causeway mixed mobile 128 43.0% 0.0%
causeway mobile control 128 70.3% 0.0%
causeway mobile gunline 128 60.2% 0.0%
causeway mobile melee 128 13.3% 0.0%
flat armored control 128 31.2% 0.0%
flat armored gunline 128 53.1% 0.0%
flat armored melee 128 1.6% 0.0%
flat armored mobile 128 33.6% 0.0%
flat gunline control 128 17.2% 0.0%
flat melee control 128 21.9% 0.0%
flat melee gunline 128 37.5% 0.0%
flat mixed armored 128 64.1% 0.0%
flat mixed control 128 68.0% 0.0%
flat mixed gunline 128 73.4% 0.0%
flat mixed melee 128 3.1% 0.0%
flat mixed mobile 128 57.0% 0.0%
flat mobile control 128 34.4% 0.0%
flat mobile gunline 128 85.9% 0.0%
flat mobile melee 128 6.2% 0.0%
foundry armored control 128 37.5% 0.0%
foundry armored gunline 128 59.4% 0.0%
foundry armored melee 128 11.7% 0.0%
foundry armored mobile 128 32.8% 0.0%
foundry gunline control 128 29.7% 0.0%
foundry melee control 128 88.3% 0.0%
foundry melee gunline 128 100.0% 0.0%
foundry mixed armored 128 56.2% 0.0%
foundry mixed control 128 51.6% 0.0%
foundry mixed gunline 128 73.4% 0.0%
foundry mixed melee 128 10.9% 0.0%
foundry mixed mobile 128 47.7% 0.0%
foundry mobile control 128 64.8% 0.0%
foundry mobile gunline 128 84.4% 0.0%
foundry mobile melee 128 4.7% 0.0%
quarry armored control 128 39.8% 0.0%
quarry armored gunline 128 42.2% 0.0%
quarry armored melee 128 36.7% 0.0%
quarry armored mobile 128 35.9% 0.0%
quarry gunline control 128 46.1% 0.0%
quarry melee control 128 92.2% 0.0%
quarry melee gunline 128 71.1% 0.0%
quarry mixed armored 128 50.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed control 128 47.7% 0.0%
quarry mixed gunline 128 60.2% 0.0%
quarry mixed melee 128 18.8% 0.0%
quarry mixed mobile 128 48.4% 0.0%
quarry mobile control 128 43.0% 0.0%
quarry mobile gunline 128 54.7% 0.0%
quarry mobile melee 128 5.5% 0.0%