Mecha Skirmish / Balance study analysisPrototype field notes / v0.6
Balance study analysis
Phase: goal-screen. Rows are paired on all eight study keys. Draws score one half. Comeback after first loss is descriptive, not causal.
Candidate summary
| Candidate |
Panel |
Spread |
Mean abs dev |
Empty Fire |
Dead before attack |
Physical side |
First side |
First-loss win |
Rounds |
Wipes |
| baseline |
partial-observed-panel |
35.5% |
10.1% |
15.1% |
8.8% |
1.1% |
5.1% |
30.9% |
5.96 |
70.4% |
| goalpath |
partial-observed-panel |
44.5% |
15.9% |
15.5% |
11.0% |
0.7% |
7.6% |
27.7% |
6.11 |
63.6% |
Paired changes from baseline
Positive guardrail changes are harmful. Worst-map columns are the largest same-map increase in absolute bias. Mean absolute bias remains descriptive.
| Candidate |
Spread |
Empty Fire |
Dead before attack |
Worst added physical |
Worst added first |
Mean physical |
Mean first |
| goalpath |
9.0% |
0.4% |
2.2% |
1.0% |
5.5% |
-0.3% |
2.5% |
Operational and command metrics
| Candidate |
First attack |
Moves |
Move hexes |
Melees |
Locks |
CP grant |
CP spend |
CP waste |
Policy declines |
Budget denials |
CP left |
Nominal mitigation |
| baseline |
1.99 |
112.90 |
112.90 |
3.86 |
7.33 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| goalpath |
2.03 |
110.32 |
110.32 |
3.23 |
7.44 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
baseline: family payoff (observed panel only)
| Family |
Expected score |
Opponents |
| mixed |
46.6% |
5 |
| armored |
56.8% |
2 |
| mobile |
68.4% |
2 |
| melee |
44.3% |
3 |
| gunline |
32.8% |
2 |
| control |
59.0% |
2 |
baseline: map and pairing points
| Map |
X |
Y |
Games |
X score |
Draws |
| causeway |
armored |
melee |
64 |
85.9% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
melee |
control |
64 |
29.7% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
42.2% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
control |
64 |
64.1% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
73.4% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
32.8% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
39.1% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
73.4% |
0.0% |
| flat |
armored |
melee |
64 |
4.7% |
0.0% |
| flat |
melee |
control |
64 |
28.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
76.6% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
control |
64 |
59.4% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
78.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
1.6% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
53.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
90.6% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
armored |
melee |
64 |
100.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
melee |
control |
64 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
31.2% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
control |
64 |
9.4% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
23.4% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
100.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
20.3% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
81.2% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
armored |
melee |
64 |
67.2% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
melee |
control |
64 |
95.3% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
53.1% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
control |
64 |
42.2% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
62.5% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
29.7% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
40.6% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
54.7% |
0.0% |
goalpath: family payoff (observed panel only)
| Family |
Expected score |
Opponents |
| mixed |
44.5% |
5 |
| armored |
64.3% |
2 |
| mobile |
70.9% |
2 |
| melee |
27.7% |
3 |
| gunline |
39.6% |
2 |
| control |
72.3% |
2 |
goalpath: map and pairing points
| Map |
X |
Y |
Games |
X score |
Draws |
| causeway |
armored |
melee |
64 |
95.3% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
melee |
control |
64 |
56.2% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
46.9% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
control |
64 |
29.7% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
39.1% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
87.5% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
34.4% |
0.0% |
| causeway |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
71.9% |
0.0% |
| flat |
armored |
melee |
64 |
4.7% |
0.0% |
| flat |
melee |
control |
64 |
28.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
76.6% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
control |
64 |
59.4% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
78.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
1.6% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
53.1% |
0.0% |
| flat |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
90.6% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
armored |
melee |
64 |
100.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
melee |
control |
64 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
29.7% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
control |
64 |
6.2% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
20.3% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
100.0% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
23.4% |
0.0% |
| foundry |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
82.8% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
armored |
melee |
64 |
98.4% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
melee |
control |
64 |
31.2% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
armored |
64 |
31.2% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
control |
64 |
10.9% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
gunline |
64 |
45.3% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
melee |
64 |
95.3% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mixed |
mobile |
64 |
21.9% |
0.0% |
| quarry |
mobile |
gunline |
64 |
54.7% |
0.0% |