Balance study analysis

Phase: cautious-policy. Rows are paired on all eight study keys. Draws score one half. Comeback after first loss is descriptive, not causal.

Comparison manifest: /Users/cody/Dev/mecha-skirmish/docs/tuning/evidence/2026-09-09-multivariant/cautious-policy-comparison.json (adaptive-exploratory, SHA-256 ca5834bb555f878fab692b32dd7811f888340cf7667bff722b1227b10190bae8). Aliases below retain their original control identities and phases.

Candidate summary

Candidate	Actual control identity	Panel	Spread	Mean abs dev	Empty Fire	Dead before attack	Physical side	First side	First-loss win	Rounds	Wipes
baseline	safeapproach (cautious-policy)	partial-observed-panel	15.8%	5.5%	11.8%	22.4%	0.4%	1.6%	26.8%	5.95	68.9%
meleepoolminus1	safeapproach+meleepoolminus1 (cautious-policy)	partial-observed-panel	17.9%	6.7%	11.7%	22.7%	0.4%	1.8%	26.4%	6.16	65.0%
accuracy2	safeapproach+accuracy2 (cautious-policy)	partial-observed-panel	16.4%	5.4%	7.2%	26.3%	0.8%	2.0%	27.5%	5.84	75.4%
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	safeapproach+meleepoolminus1+accuracy2 (cautious-policy)	partial-observed-panel	32.9%	13.9%	7.2%	26.3%	0.5%	1.7%	25.1%	6.01	73.4%

Paired changes from baseline

Positive guardrail changes are harmful. Worst-map columns are the largest same-map increase in absolute bias. Mean absolute bias remains descriptive.

Candidate	Spread	Empty Fire	Dead before attack	Worst added physical	Worst added first	Mean physical	Mean first
meleepoolminus1	2.0% [-5.6%, 7.7%]	-0.0% [-0.2%, 0.1%]	0.3% [0.1%, 0.4%]	0.4% [-0.0%, 1.3%]	0.8% [0.3%, 2.5%]	0.0%	0.2%
accuracy2	0.5% [-4.5%, 6.0%]	-4.5% [-5.3%, -3.9%]	3.9% [3.4%, 4.3%]	0.8% [0.3%, 2.2%]	1.1% [0.4%, 3.7%]	0.4%	0.4%
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	17.1% [11.8%, 22.2%]	-4.5% [-5.4%, -3.8%]	3.9% [3.4%, 4.3%]	0.5% [0.1%, 1.4%]	1.0% [0.0%, 3.2%]	0.1%	0.1%

Intervals: 95.0% paired seed-block bootstrap, 1,000 replicates. Exploratory only; final inference requires the predeclared 99% intervals.

Exploratory family-payoff intervals

These 95% bootstrap intervals are descriptive and separate from the five primary claims. Point and interval warnings are reported separately against the 35%–65% review band.

Candidate	Family	Point	95% interval	Point outside band	Interval entirely outside band
baseline	mixed	41.8%	[38.7%, 45.8%]	no	no
baseline	armored	46.2%	[43.4%, 50.0%]	no	no
baseline	mobile	39.6%	[36.7%, 42.6%]	no	no
baseline	melee	53.0%	[49.8%, 55.3%]	no	no
baseline	gunline	52.0%	[49.0%, 56.2%]	no	no
baseline	control	55.4%	[52.9%, 57.9%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	mixed	51.7%	[49.2%, 54.0%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	armored	59.6%	[55.9%, 62.7%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	mobile	55.0%	[51.9%, 57.7%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	melee	43.3%	[40.8%, 45.7%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	gunline	56.0%	[53.3%, 59.7%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1	control	61.2%	[57.9%, 64.1%]	no	no
accuracy2	mixed	49.2%	[46.9%, 51.8%]	no	no
accuracy2	armored	54.4%	[51.3%, 58.6%]	no	no
accuracy2	mobile	48.0%	[44.6%, 51.4%]	no	no
accuracy2	melee	45.5%	[43.0%, 47.6%]	no	no
accuracy2	gunline	58.8%	[56.8%, 61.4%]	no	no
accuracy2	control	61.9%	[59.0%, 65.1%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	mixed	58.7%	[57.0%, 60.2%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	armored	68.0%	[66.5%, 69.6%]	yes	yes
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	mobile	61.9%	[60.3%, 63.6%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	melee	36.1%	[34.6%, 37.4%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	gunline	62.1%	[59.7%, 65.0%]	no	no
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	control	69.0%	[65.4%, 72.8%]	yes	yes

Operational and command metrics

Candidate	First attack	Moves	Move hexes	Melees	Locks
baseline	2.56	128.63	128.63	2.58	5.68
meleepoolminus1	2.59	130.20	130.20	3.14	6.07
accuracy2	2.49	126.13	126.13	2.36	5.56
meleepoolminus1+accuracy2	2.52	127.13	127.13	2.86	5.90

baseline: family payoff (observed panel only)

Family	Expected score	Opponents
mixed	41.8%	1
armored	46.2%	1
mobile	39.6%	1
melee	53.0%	5
gunline	52.0%	1
control	55.4%	1

baseline: map and pairing points

Map	X	Y	Games	X score	Draws
causeway	armored	melee	800	35.4%	0.0%
causeway	melee	control	800	56.4%	0.0%
causeway	melee	gunline	800	61.8%	0.0%
causeway	mixed	melee	800	30.5%	0.0%
causeway	mobile	melee	800	33.9%	0.0%
flat	armored	melee	800	53.2%	0.0%
flat	melee	control	800	20.5%	0.0%
flat	melee	gunline	800	31.6%	0.0%
flat	mixed	melee	800	49.2%	0.0%
flat	mobile	melee	800	51.0%	0.0%
foundry	armored	melee	800	32.0%	0.0%
foundry	melee	control	800	57.5%	0.0%
foundry	melee	gunline	800	63.2%	0.0%
foundry	mixed	melee	800	33.2%	0.0%
foundry	mobile	melee	800	32.2%	0.0%
quarry	armored	melee	800	64.4%	0.0%
quarry	melee	control	800	43.9%	0.0%
quarry	melee	gunline	800	35.2%	0.0%
quarry	mixed	melee	800	54.1%	0.0%
quarry	mobile	melee	800	41.2%	0.0%

meleepoolminus1: family payoff (observed panel only)

Family	Expected score	Opponents
mixed	51.7%	1
armored	59.6%	1
mobile	55.0%	1
melee	43.3%	5
gunline	56.0%	1
control	61.2%	1

meleepoolminus1: map and pairing points

Map	X	Y	Games	X score	Draws
causeway	armored	melee	800	49.4%	0.0%
causeway	melee	control	800	47.4%	0.0%
causeway	melee	gunline	800	57.0%	0.0%
causeway	mixed	melee	800	41.5%	0.0%
causeway	mobile	melee	800	53.0%	0.0%
flat	armored	melee	800	62.0%	0.0%
flat	melee	control	800	19.4%	0.0%
flat	melee	gunline	800	28.7%	0.0%
flat	mixed	melee	800	56.9%	0.0%
flat	mobile	melee	800	64.4%	0.0%
foundry	armored	melee	800	51.2%	0.0%
foundry	melee	control	800	51.2%	0.0%
foundry	melee	gunline	800	58.0%	0.0%
foundry	mixed	melee	800	45.1%	0.0%
foundry	mobile	melee	800	48.8%	0.0%
quarry	armored	melee	800	75.6%	0.0%
quarry	melee	control	800	37.2%	0.0%
quarry	melee	gunline	800	32.4%	0.0%
quarry	mixed	melee	800	63.1%	0.0%
quarry	mobile	melee	800	53.8%	0.0%

accuracy2: family payoff (observed panel only)

Family	Expected score	Opponents
mixed	49.2%	1
armored	54.4%	1
mobile	48.0%	1
melee	45.5%	5
gunline	58.8%	1
control	61.9%	1

accuracy2: map and pairing points

Map	X	Y	Games	X score	Draws
causeway	armored	melee	800	45.5%	0.0%
causeway	melee	control	800	45.6%	0.0%
causeway	melee	gunline	800	53.6%	0.0%
causeway	mixed	melee	800	40.5%	0.0%
causeway	mobile	melee	800	44.6%	0.0%
flat	armored	melee	800	61.6%	0.0%
flat	melee	control	800	18.0%	0.0%
flat	melee	gunline	800	24.8%	0.0%
flat	mixed	melee	800	59.1%	0.0%
flat	mobile	melee	800	63.6%	0.0%
foundry	armored	melee	800	42.5%	0.0%
foundry	melee	control	800	50.2%	0.0%
foundry	melee	gunline	800	56.0%	0.0%
foundry	mixed	melee	800	40.1%	0.0%
foundry	mobile	melee	800	36.6%	0.0%
quarry	armored	melee	800	68.1%	0.0%
quarry	melee	control	800	38.6%	0.0%
quarry	melee	gunline	800	30.4%	0.0%
quarry	mixed	melee	800	57.2%	0.0%
quarry	mobile	melee	800	47.2%	0.0%

meleepoolminus1+accuracy2: family payoff (observed panel only)

Family	Expected score	Opponents
mixed	58.7%	1
armored	68.0%	1
mobile	61.9%	1
melee	36.1%	5
gunline	62.1%	1
control	69.0%	1

meleepoolminus1+accuracy2: map and pairing points

Map	X	Y	Games	X score	Draws
causeway	armored	melee	800	60.5%	0.0%
causeway	melee	control	800	33.9%	0.0%
causeway	melee	gunline	800	48.4%	0.0%
causeway	mixed	melee	800	50.2%	0.0%
causeway	mobile	melee	800	61.1%	0.0%
flat	armored	melee	800	72.8%	0.0%
flat	melee	control	800	15.8%	0.0%
flat	melee	gunline	800	22.4%	0.0%
flat	mixed	melee	800	64.0%	0.0%
flat	mobile	melee	800	69.4%	0.1%
foundry	armored	melee	800	61.1%	0.0%
foundry	melee	control	800	42.8%	0.0%
foundry	melee	gunline	800	53.2%	0.0%
foundry	mixed	melee	800	51.0%	0.0%
foundry	mobile	melee	800	56.1%	0.0%
quarry	armored	melee	800	77.8%	0.0%
quarry	melee	control	800	31.6%	0.0%
quarry	melee	gunline	800	27.6%	0.0%
quarry	mixed	melee	800	69.4%	0.0%
quarry	mobile	melee	800	60.9%	0.0%